With the 96th Academy Awards coming up on March 10th, I decided to get in on the discourse and share my predictions for the awards alongside my general thoughts and musings on the nature of the candidates and appreciation for those artists who were not given the recognition I feel they should have been. I’m less interested in “snubs” and more interested in shining a light on work I felt was spectacular, so my notation of noticeable omissions isn’t meant to denigrate any of other nominees as much as it is to praise what I think is cinematically wonderful/artistically exceptional and offer a look into my own perspective.

For those looking to quickly parse the discussion for just the predictions, I have the winners BOLDED under each award category.

For any category where I haven’t seen a particular nominee, I will be marking them with an * next to the name of the respective film.

I will be skipping the following categories due to lack of familiarity with a majority of the nominees: Animated Short Film, Documentary Short Film, Documentary Feature Film.

BEST PICTURE

FILM	DIRECTOR	PRODUCER(S)
American Fiction	Cord Jefferson	Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson
Anatomy of a Fall	Justine Triet	Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion
Barbie	Greta Gerwig	David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner
The Holdovers	Alexander Payne	Mark Johnson
Killers of the Flower Moon	Martin Scorsese	Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi
Maestro	Bradley Cooper	Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger
Oppenheimer	Christopher Nolan	Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
Past Lives	Celine Song	David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler
Poor Things	Yorgos Lanthimos	Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone
The Zone of Interest	Jonathan Glazer	James Wilson

This year’s Best Picture nominees, from my perspective at least, feel like they’re split into two categories: ambitious in form and style with muscular filmmaking, utilizing writing and acting in service of the more technical elements to generate transcendent moments of filmmaking; heavily reliant on writing and acting to generate moments of poignant catharsis with less focus on the pushing the envelope of visual style or form. This is not to say films in the former group have worse scripts and/or poorer performances while films in the latter group have nothing technically inventive to marvel at but merely serves as an internal schema I’ve adopted to partition the nominees into more discrete entities for the sake of discussion.

This former group is the one I prefer due to my own leanings and thoughts on what makes for “great” cinema and it consists of: Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon. I would be happy with any of these films winning the prestigious Best Picture award.

The latter group consists of: American Fiction, Past Lives, and the Holdovers. While Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, and Maestro seem to toe the line between these groupings, they do seem to err towards the paradigm enshrined by the latter, so I feel comfortable including them here.

Out of all the candidates, the film I believe is MOST LIKELY to win is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. His sprawling biopic sacrifices no narrative heft and features a great ensemble performance on top of two masterful performances from both Cilian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. while exhibiting some of his most masterful editing work, the facet of cinema he most excels at, and strikes a nice balance between popular appeal and formal exuberance. Given it’s track record at awards shows leading up to the Academy Awards, it feels like an incredibly safe bet to win.

While I don’t think any film was “snubbed” so to speak, there are a few films which I felt exhibited the best aspects of cinema which I would have thoroughly enjoyed to see nominated, including but not limited to: Ari Aster’s Beau is Afraid, Emerald Fennel’s Saltburn, Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers, Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, and Chad Stahleski’s John Wick: Chapter 4. While some of these films would definitely not see an academy nomination due to their content, experimental tendencies, or genre leanings, I do believe they represent some of the very best of the year and wanted to shine a light on them alongside the aforementioned offerings.

DIRECTING

FILM	DIRECTOR
Anatomy of a Fall	Justine Triet
Killers of the Flower Moon	Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer	Christopher Nolan
Past Lives	Yorgos Lanthimos
The Zone of Interest	Jonathan Glazer

Out of the directing candidates, I’m happy to say I’d be fine with the majority of the pool taking home the big award, even though I think that the MOST LIKELY winner will be Christopher Nolan. With Oppenheimer poised to win the lion share’s of awards on Oscar night, it seems inevitable that Nolan will finally get his well deserved Oscar and subsequent recognition.

On another note, in reference to the idea of director Greta Gerwig’s snub for Barbie, while I personally do not think such an offense occurred from my perspective of what constituted the best film of the year, I do think it’s curious to see Barbie nominated for Best Picture, and Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) along with a few other nominations and then not see the director get credited for the same especially given the cultural relevance of the film. If the award is meant to recognize the director who put the relevant elements together, and those elements are recognized as excellent in their own right and cohesive enough to generate a picture worth nominating, it feels odd to not that same director in this set of awards.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

FILM	DIRECTOR	COUNTRY
Io Capitano *	Matteo Garrone	Italy
Perfect Days	Wim Wenders	Japan
Society of the Snow	J. A. Bayona	Spain
The Teacher’s’ Lounge	Ilker Çatak	Germany
The Zone of Interest	Jonathan Glazer	United Kingdom

I believe the Zone of Interest is MOST LIKELY to win. It’s by and far away the best film of those nominated for the International Feature Film award and I have no doubt it will cinch the same especially given the absence of Anatomy of a Fall which bested it at the Cannes Film Festival.

Speaking of Anatomy of a Fall however, and the related discussions of its omission due to France’s decision to nominate The Taste of Things, I have to readily admit that I think that the proper decision was made in this regards and am puzzled at the latter film’s particular omission from this final list of five nominees. The Taste of Things features poetic camera-work, includes tender and inviting performances, and certainly feels like it warrants a better reputation amongst cineastes.

But on a more positive note, while I believe that Perfect Days was not the best film made in Japan (that honor goes to Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron) , I do believe it’s a gem of a film and am glad to see it have gotten some recognition, especially when Japan seemed to produce a handful of incredible quality films (including: Godzilla Minus One and Monster) this past year. If not for The Zone of Interest, this would be my easy pick for the award from the current pool of nominees.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

FILM	DIRECTOR(S)
The Boy and the Heron	Hayao Miyazaki
Elemental	Peter Sohn
Nimona	Troy Quane, Nick Bruno
Robot Dreams*	Pablo Berger
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson

In terms of animation, 2023 proved to be one of the very best (at least at the top level), especially in recent years, with both Western and Eastern directors and studios putting out incredible, quality works. I believe it’s going to be a fierce two -horse race between The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse but I do think Miyazaki’s film is MOST LIKELY to win.

Miyazaki famously is the only director to have a work, Spirited Away, win the prestigious award despite having made it in a non-North American animation house, and the cult of personality surrounding him and the melancholy nature of this film potentially being his last might be enough to push him ahead of his competitors.

In terms of missing films, I believe that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem is a significant omission and certainly warranted a spot on the list of nominees. It has a wonderful aesthetic dripping with personality and makes a series of cinematic choices that use animation’s abilities as a medium to the fullest

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

FILM	DIRECTOR
The After	Misan Harriman
Invincible	Vincent René-Lortie
Knight of Fortune	Lasse Lyskjær Noer
Red, White and Blue	Nazrin Choudhury
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar	Wes Anderson

It’s a bit of a paradigmatic snafu for me in the context of this category, because I evaluated Wes Anderson’s collection of Roald Dahl short films as an anthology film of sorts, but if forced to evaluate just The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, I do believe it is easily the best offering from the nominees and is MOST LIKELY to win.

However, I do want to call attention to the omission of Bi Gan’s A Short Story from the nominees. It’s a wonderfully hypnotic piece of film-making that fit’s nicely into the director’s wildly oneiric oeuvre and I believe that it would made this competition, from my point of view, incredibly competitive.

FILM EDITING

FILM	EDITOR
Anatomy of a Fall	Laurent Sénéchal
The Holdovers	Kevin Tent
Killers of the Flower Moon	Thelma Schoonmaker
Oppenheimer	Jennifer Lame
Poor Things	Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Christopher Nolan has made a name for himself as one of the premiere editors of the modern generation of filmmaker’s and his work with editor Jennifer Lame confirms that his sense of rhythm and penchant for formal layering has only gotten stronger and think that the latter is MOST LIKELY to win as a result. The film wonderfully dips between different timelines seamlessly and makes following otherwise un-cinematic conversations a visceral experience.

In terms of omissions, I’d like to call to attention Jonathan Alberts’ work on All of Us Strangers which deftly interweaves between internal and external, dreamscape and reality, the corporeal and metaphysical with such ease that one simply sets back and lets the experience of the film wash over them.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

FILM	DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY
El Conde	Edward Lachman
Killers of the Flower Moon	Rodrigo Prieto
Maestro	Matthew Libatique
Oppenheimer	Hoyte van Hoytema
Poor Things	Robbie Ryan

This is a category which I would have loved to see opened up this year as there were numerous director’s of photography transporting us through worlds, both internal and external, through their use of camera movement in relation to precise mise-en-scène arrangements.

In terms of the nominees proper, I want to call special attention to Lachman’s work in El Conde, which imbues a texture and sense of gravitas to the film and keeps its horror comedy blood flowing and Robbie Ryan’s masterful work in Poor Things where his staggeringly beautiful photography utilizing hyper-exaggerated and distinctive lenses feels at once totally alien and simultaneously wholly authentic to the world being showcased.

Notable nominees who I want to shout out include: Dan Lausten, whose work on John Wick: 4 imbues and ties kinetic, jaw-dropping action with wonderful, picturesque set-piece and backdrops which give the film an epic and grandiose feeling, elevating it to the top of its genre; Pawel Pogorzelski, whose work on Beau is Afraid, masterfully evokes the voyeuristic feeling of the camera and the way it points-of-views are matriculated through subjectivity and influence the way phenomena are perceived; Linus Sandgren, whose work on Saltburn contains some of the most flat-out, painterly beautiful frames I’ve seen in films this past year; Jonathan Ricquebourg, whose work on The Taste of Things, transports the viewer into the world of gourmet foods with such flair, that one cannot help but feel their stomachs grumble as the film deftly exhibits the transformative, evocative powers of a camera that knows exactly at what points to prolong its movements to create truly, sublime moments.

With that said, I think that it’s Hoyte Van Hoytema’s work on Oppenheimer, that will MOST LIKELY take home top prize. He manages to imbue such an epic scale to an intimate bio-pic and utilizes the canvas of Cilian Murphy’s hazy, blue eyes, and worry-marked face to constantly evoke and stir the palpable emotional current that keeps the film feeling grounded and monumental simultaneously.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

FILM	NOMINEES
Barbie	Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Killers of the Flower Moon	Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
Napoleon	Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
Oppenheimer	Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
Poor Things	Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek

There are three glaring omissions in this category that I would like to draw attention to before talking about the wonderful nominees proper. They are: Fiona Crombie, for her work on Beau is Afraid, a film that constantly changes between what seems to be radically different milieus, each striking and viscerally shocking in their own ways, while keeping the aesthetic choices consistent within the larger schema of the film; Charlotte Dirckx and Suzie Davis, for their work on Saltburn, a film that explores the labyrinth of wealth through a debauched, grandiose setting that exemplifies the same; Adam Stockhausen, for his work on Asteroid City, a film which splits itself between two separate strands, each complete with their own trappings and aesthetic leanings, that feels wholly nostalgic, fictional, and lived-in simultaneously.

In terms of the nominees themselves, the race between them is incredibly close and I could see the award going to Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, or Poor Things. While my personal pick of these would likely go to the team behind Poor Things for the wonderful creation of a surreal world mapped off our own, I think Academy voters will MOST LIKELY be swayed by Barbie whose hot-pink, resolutely artificial sets give it a vitality that even detractors of the film at large wouldn’t be able to ignore. Given my belief that Barbie will also lose a good amount of the awards it’s been nominated for, this feels like a safe “gimme” award for the box-office juggernaut.

VISUAL EFFECTS

FILM	NOMINEES
The Creator	Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
Godzilla Minus One	Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3	Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One	Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
Napoleon	Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

While I think this batch of nominees is more than deserving of their selections, Alexandre Lafortune’s work on Beau is Afraid and the way he was able to coalesce the work and visions of a host of creatives (especially the contributions of Cristobal León & Joaquín Cociña) to deliver Aster’s zany vision is nothing short of exemplary especially in the 3rd-part of the film which contains, for my money, some of the most spectacular film-making of this current decade.

In terms of the nominees proper, both the teams for The Creator and Godzilla Minus One deserve applause for helping to create moments of serious heft, depth, and impact, perfectly molding artifice with reality in a gripping, yet non-alienating fashion. Choosing between them is not an easy or enviable act.

While I believe that Godzilla Minus One will MOST LIKELY win the award due to the awards buzz hype surrounding it and its massive global reach, I would personally give the slightest edge to The Creator whose visuals and subsequent worldbuilding left me gobsmacked through its running time, never letting up and allowing me to question what I was seeing even though in the back of my mind I knew it was just digital wizardry at play.

COSTUME DESIGN

FILM	NOMINEES
Barbie	Jacqueline Durran
Killers of the Flower Moon	Jacqueline West
Napoleon	Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
Oppenheimer	Ellen Mirojnick
Poor Things	Holly Waddington

While I believe the nominees in this category to be wonderful, I do want to draw attention to Stacey Battat’s work on Priscilla as she recreates crystallized moments from the past with such careful attention to detail that the film is able to explore the ghosts of the past as though they were here with us now.

In terms of who will be taking home the award, I believe it will MOST LIKELY go to Jacqueline Durran for her work on Barbie. In the same manner of praise I lauded onto the team behind the film’s production design, I have to extend to Durran who wonderfully captures the mood of the iconic doll amongst such a large variety of variants that it becomes hard not to get lost in the wonderful details.

However, my personal pick amongst the deserving nominees would be Holly Waddington for her work in Poor Things, given her ability to switch effortlessly between so many variations and stylizations of dress-wear whilst showing their respective evolutions vis-a-vis the protagonists journey. The work is showy in the best ways, inviting the viewer to pay attention and marvel, but never becomes the focal point outside of when it needs to play that role.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

FILM	NOMINEES
Golda*	Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
Maestro	Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
Oppenheimer	Luisa Abel
Poor Things	Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
Society of the Snow	Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé

From the perspective of what the Academy Awards themselves would normally nominate, this category feels like it has a glaring omission in the form of the team behind Barbie which feels especially absurd given my comments above on the film’s Costume Design; this work goes very much in hand with the makeup and hairstyling work being done there and if one is worthy of winning it seems shocking that the other would not be worthy of being nominated. Just genuinely baffling.

From my own perspective, the lack of nomination for the team behind Beau is Afraid’s makeup and hairstyling – which perfectly rides the line between disturbing, campy, and endearing – feels more an effect of the Academy’s general aversion to the film and its ilk, so pointing out this omission is more a tepid sigh on my part than an aggrieved, finger-wagging condemnation.

But in regards to the nominees in play, without Barbie to lead the way, this category is certainly harder for me to predict, and I definitely think, moreso than the other categories, my biases are have to dictate my choice; thus, I believe that the award will MOST LIKELY go to Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston for their efforts on Poor Things. Their work is subtle when it needs to be and the more extreme aspects of what they managed to do feel wholly incorporated.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

FILM	WRITER(S)
Anatomy of a Fall	Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
The Holdovers	David Hemingson
Maestro	Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
May December	Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
Past Lives	Celine Song

At this point I’ve extolled Ari Aster’s Beau is Afraid enough, so I’ll just say I think I think it should be mentioned in this conversation.

A film I’ve been waiting to bring up and now have an opportunity to do so with however, is Hirokazu Kore-eda’s Monster whose screenplay written by Yuji Sakamoto is entirely gripping from start to finish, demonstrating the powers of structure as a tool by which to break a seemingly simple story in such a way as to create a propulsive narrative force that emotionally provokes as much as it plays with the mysteries lying its heart.

With that said, this category is incredibly competitive this year and guessing the winner feels like playing a game of statistics using other nominations as a springboard to guess what’s going to win.

If it were up to me, I would, by a very slim margin, pick Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik’s work on May December. They manage to hit the perfect space of absolutely disturbing and upsettingly funny and the way the narrative progresses is a sight to behold.

However, I think Celine Song’s work on her debut, Past Lives, is absolutely masterful and certainly operating on the same tier. Perhaps it’s due to my conversations with my own friends regarding the film, but it feels like it hits so many emotional beats commonplace among persons across a wide variety of age groups, targeting a kind of unforgettable melancholy we’ve all buried away lest we look upon the same and shatter into pieces, that I can’t help but think it’ll manage to sway enough voters to win. Calling it MOST LIKELY to win feels difficult, especially given the rapturous hold The Holdovers has seemed to have on audiences who have given themselves over to its tender, heart-warming story and absolutely and endlessly quotable moments (there are few lines more memorable from the year than “Hardy, I have known you since you were a boy, so I think I have the requisite experience and insight to aver that you are and always have been penis cancer in human form.”) , so I could see Hemingson also walking away with this honor. This is certainly going to be one of the more gripping Oscar night races to witness.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

FILM	WRITER(S)
American Fiction	Cord Jefferson
Barbie	Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer	Christopher Nolan
Poor Things	Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest	Jonathan Glazer

Killers of the Flower Moon glaring omission here, especially given its prominence among the other categories, is certainly felt, but the pool of candidates left are all absolutely worth of the accolades.

However, if there’s an omission that’s flown under the radar, it’s Andrew Haigh’s work on All of Us Strangers, which is certainly one of the most emotionally evocative, sublimely tender pieces of filmmaking I’ve seen in years let alone the year itself. The manner in which he’s distilled Taichi Yamada’s initial story and transformed it into his own is demonstrative proof of the magic of adaptation and would certainly be my personal pick for best Adapted Screenplay of the year.

Amongst the candidates themselves, I think it’s hard to go wrong with Christopher Nolan, Tony McNamara, or Jonathan Glazer, as each of their screenplays seems perfectly calibrated to do exactly what their respective film’s are trying to achieve thematically. Glazer’s minimalism might be a tough sell to voters even if I think it’s absolutely perfect in what it sets out to do. Ultimately, if forced to choose between the other two, I believe that Christopher Nolan will MOST LIKELY take home the prize, riding the wave of Oppenheimer’s general success.

SOUND

FILM	NOMINEES
The Creator	Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
Maestro	Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One	Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Oppenheimer	Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
The Zone of Interest	Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

There’s only one real answer here, no MOST LIKELY about it, and that is Tarn Willers and Johnie Burn’s work on The Zone of Interest. This might be some of the greatest sound work in the history of the cinematic artform, supplementing the visuals of the film and the story told by the same with another tale entirely through the soundscape, a plane which utterly terrifies and engrosses the audience within its miasma from start to finish.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

FILM	COMPOSERS
American Fiction	Laura Karpman
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	John Williams
Killers of the Flower Moon	Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer	Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things	Jerskin Fendrix

My personal pick for this year’s best original score oscillated between two candidates. The first of whom, Joe Hisaishi, created one of the most somber, touch, endearing, spellbinding scores in his already legendary, storied career for The Boy and the Heron. There is a beautiful minimalism to much of it that explodes with sensational aplomb when the need arises, never overstaying its welcome or arriving too late to accentuate the oneiric visuals on screen. His omission definitely feels like the Academy denigrating the power of animation within film.

Thankfully, the second of my picks, Ludwig Göransson, is also the MOST LIKELY to walk away with this prize. Nolan shows off the range of Göransson’s musical treatise, filling his film with tracks for nearly its entire runtime. There’s absolutely no place to hide from the soundscape and no one who listens to its sonorous beauty would want to.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

SONG	FILM	NOMINEES
The Fire Inside	Flamin’ Hot	Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
I’m Just Ken	Barbie	Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
It Never Went Away	American Symphony	Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)	Killers of the Flower Moon	Music and Lyric by Scott George
What Was I Made For?	Barbie	Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

What Was I Made For? feels like it was born for this award and will MOST LIKELY walk away with the prize. It served as the perfect vehicle for the wonderful Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell to imbue Barbie with an emotional heft that one would not normally attribute to a film based on the hugely popular toy line.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

FILM	ACTOR
Maestro	Bradley Cooper
Rustin	Colman Domingo
The Holdovers	Paul Giamatti
Oppenheimer	Cillian Murphy
American Fiction	Jeffrey Wright

As we come to the final set of awards, one’s related to acting, I have to mention Beau is Afraid one final time as Joaquin Phoenix’s turn as the iconic Beau is absolutely legendary and one of the legendary actor’s finest performances. He’s forced to both be a receptacle for Aster’s world and exhibit a neurotic indecision that would be nauseatingly grating by any normal measure but also be sympathetic enough such as to not totally alienate the viewer, and I believe he achieves that striking balance with such precision that it’s hard not to be impressed.

However, when it comes to awards night, the MOST LIKELY, and by this I mean almost definitely, winner will be CILIAN MURPHY, whose piercing eyes and worried facial lines ground the film’s epic scale with a human intimacy that lingers on the viewer long after the runtime has finished. This is the best performance from a storied actor, one whose worked with Nolan for years on end now, and come Oscar night I hope to see him recognized for the same.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

FILM	ACTOR
American Fiction	Sterling K. Brown
Killers of the Flower Moon	Robert De Niro
Oppenheimer	Robert Downey Jr.
Barbie	Ryan Gosling
Poor Things	Mark Ruffalo

Like his cast-mate, Robert Downey Jr. win feels less like a MOST LIKELY and more like a certainty. He is every much Cilian’s equal, both within the Oppenheimer’s‘ narrative and in regards to the depth of the performance he has to give to humanize the stakes.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

FILM	ACTRESS
Nyad	Annette Bening
Killers of the Flower Moon	Lily Gladstone
Anatomy of a Fall	Sandra Hüller
Maestro	Carey Mulligan
Poor Things	Emma Stone

This is certainly the most competitive race of the night and feels like a battle between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While I believe Emma Stone’s performance is legendary and might be one the young, but incredibly accomplished actress’s best and is easily my pick for the category, her status as an Oscar holder and the narrative forming behind Gladstone might be just enough for the Killers of the Flower Moon star to cinch the award.

It’s hard to deliberate between one’s gut and the way one perceives the flow of public opinion, but I think that Emma Stone will MOST LIKELY walk away with the award given both more transformative nature of her performance and the fact that, unlike Gladstone, she’s in almost every frame of her film as it’s star.

Funnily enough, I believe that the second best performance by an actress this year came from Sandra Hüller for her work in The Zone of Interest, but it’s her work in Anatomy of a Fall which has been nominated. If anything, it demonstrates what an exceptional phenom she is, having been a part of two of the better films of the year and delivering masterful performances in both.

However, while Hüller has at least been mentioned for her work in one of the films, even if I think it’s the weaker of her two roles, Scarlett Johansson’s work in Asteroid City has largely flown under the radar and is certainly worthy of adoration. Standing out in an Anderson ensemble is hard enough work, let alone to a newcomer to his iconic filmography, but Johnasson absolutely delivers a wonderfully subtle performance that fits within the director’s style while being totally her own. The lack of attention given to her work seems to be more an effect of the film’s larger alienation among the director’s usual fanbase – a shame.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

FILM	ACTRESS
Oppenheimer	Emily Blunt
The Color Purple	Danielle Brooks
Barbie	America Ferrera
Nyad	Jodie Foster
The Holdovers	Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Given her absolute decimation of this category throughout the season’s award shows, it’s not a MOST LIKELY as much as it is an inevitability that Da’Vine Joy Randolph will win the award for her emotionally compelling work in The Holdovers.