With the 98th Academy Awards arriving, here are my predictions for the awards alongside my general thoughts and musings on the nature of the candidates and appreciation for those artists who were not given the recognition I feel they should have been.

I’m less interested in “snubs” and more interested in shining a light on work I felt was spectacular, so my notation of noticeable omissions isn’t meant to denigrate any of other nominees as much as it is to praise what I think is cinematically wonderful/artistically exceptional and offer a look into my own perspective.

For those looking to quickly parse the discussion for just the predictions, I have the winners BOLDED under each award category.

For any category where I haven’t seen a particular nominee, I will be marking them with an * next to the name of the respective film.

I will be skipping the following categories due to lack of familiarity with a majority of the nominees: Animated Short Film, Documentary Short Film, Documentary Feature Film, Live Action Short Film.

BEST PICTURE

This year’s Best Picture nominees, from my perspective at least, feel relatively on par with some slight stand-outs.

While I believe that One Battle After Another and Frankenstein are a half-step to step better tha the rest, the majority of the other candidates are wonderful films I would not mind seeing win this years award.

F1 is the biggest deviation within the list (good but not of the same pedigree as the rest of its competition) ,but the Oscars, especially in recent years (ex: Wicked, Barbie) have started recognizing the impact of cinematic works in terms of mainstream culture, so the pick makes sense within the larger trend.

Out of all the candidates, the film I believe is MOST LIKELY to win is Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. P.T.A has been one of the best auteurs in the art-form since his Boogie Nights exploded onto the scene in ’97. After years of award misses, it feels like this is his best shot at getting the Oscar. In many ways, the situation reminds me of Scorsese’s wins for The Departed at the 79th Academy Awards; a master rewarded for an excellent film even though it’s not necessarily their best work.

That is not to imply the film is not deserving of the award: it may be Anderson’s most accessible work (which is saying something given its Pynchonian genesis), but its still wholly cinematic; PTA’s firing on creative cylinders that can only be experienced on the big screen. Additionally, the film features PTA’s best action choreography – kinetic set-pieces that ooze tension – and some of his outright funniest scenarios.

While I don’t think any film was “snubbed” so to speak, there are a few films which I felt exhibited the best aspects of cinema which I would have thoroughly enjoyed to see nominated, including but not limited to: Ari Aster’s Eddington (in many ways the foil to One Battle After Another) , Bi Gan’s Resurrection, Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice, Lynne Ramsay’s Die My Love, Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother, Noah Baumbach’s’ Jay Kelly, and Tatsuya Yoshihara’s Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc.

While some of these films would definitely not see an academy nomination due to their content, experimental tendencies, or genre leanings, I do believe they represent some of the very best of the year and wanted to shine a light on them alongside the aforementioned offerings.

DIRECTING

Out of the directing candidates, I think Paul Thomas Anderson winning would be wonderful and is the MOST LIKELY winner for the aforementioned reasons.

In terms of missing directors, the omission of Guillermo del Toro is an interesting one given the hype behind Frankenstein and nominations for Best Picture, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Production Design, Sound, Writing (Adapted Screenplay), Actor in a Supporting Role.

The film is absolutely within del Toro’s wheelhouse and feels a step-up from The Shape of Water which he did win for. Given that, I would normally chalk it up to recency bias but given Zhao’s win for Nomadland at the 93rd Academy Awards, that doesn’t feel right either. Regardless, his absence is an odd one.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

This category is more interesting than usual with 2 films crossing over with the Best Picture List: Sentimental Value and the The Secret Agent. These are our true contenders for the award.

Of the two, I believe that Sentimental Value is MOST LIKELY to win given its increased presence amongst the awards categories . That said, both The Secret Agent and Sirāt are two most cinematic of the nominees and I would vote for either of them to take the win.

Yet, like last year, this category is more interesting to discuss given that the two best foreign films, both contenders for film of the year, have both been woefully excluded from the list of nominees.

At this point it feels like Park Chan-wook and his masterful work will never be recognized by the academy. No Other Choice’s omission is extra baffling and can’t be explained away to something as simple as subject matter given the Academy’s wholehearted embrace of Bong joon-ho’s Parasite at the 92nd Academy Awards – a meditation on class relations that felt universal in spite of its Korean milieu. Park’s approach differs

The omission of Bi Gan’s Resurrection makes sense – the also features an opaque narrative and formal precision that demands viewers pay attention and ruminate on the experience. Given the troubles with getting Academy voters to even watch all the films nominated, its more likely that the majority of the voters would never give this art film a choice.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

While I would love if the pastel-infused Little Amélie or the Character of Rain won the award, KPop Demon Hunters is MOST LIKELY to win. The cultural juggernaut cannot and will not be stopped. Its near ubiquitous presence since its debut on Netflix makes it the easiest film to watch for voters (who have no doubt been forced to do the same by family members or friends enamored with the subject matter) and the films general sense of energy and expressiveness makes it an incredibly easy and digestible experience.

However, just like with International Films, this year’s category is marked by a looming omission in Tatsuya Yoshihara’s Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc. The film is formally compact and rigorous in a way that most animated films, western or not, never aspire towards. The film’s camerawork feels just as alive as its physical counterpart, but unbound by the dimensions of animation.

FILM EDITING

Riding the hype train that is One Battle After Another, I believe that Andy Jurgensen is MOST LIKELY to win. His editing helps propel an otherwise seemingly disparate narrative into a momentum machine that keeps viewers gripped from start to finish in spite of shifting timelines and characters.

That aside, Michael P. Shawver’s work on Sinners and Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie’s work on Marty Supreme are also efforts I would not mind and could see winning. The former’s use of smash cuts and the way it juggles between its moving narratives accentuates the films genre-blending passions and thematic confluences. The latter’s kinetic, frenzied editing is what maintains the gestalt of a narrative that feels like its constantly threatening to upend itself into a wholly different direction.

In terms of omissions,Kim Sang-bum (regular Park collaborator) and Kim Ho-bin’s work on No Other Choice is the best of the year. Park’s films are always in contention for their respective year’s best and No Other Choice is no exception, utilizing every trick in the book as it moves between and through its sequences.

Additionally, Lucian Johnston’s work on Eddington and on If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (talk about a year) is wonderful. In the former, he manages to imbue the film’s gestalt with a paranoid intensity and absurd evolution similar to the algorithms at the stories heart. In the latter, his work accentuates the anxieties and unease at the film’s heart by keeping the viewer just as barely grounded as the story’s protagonist.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

This is a category which is absolutely brimming with quality and is one where any of the winners are worthy due to the depth and beauty of their images.

I believe that Jarin Blaschke‘s work on Train Dreams is MOST LIKELY to win given it is the films most obvious strength and certainly the first feature one discusses post-viewing. The Malickian aesthetic reigns supreme throughout the film and is sumptuous.

In terms of non-nominated works: Dong Jingsong’s work on Resurrection is easily the most ambitious and dynamic work of the year and its omission is utterly baffling in spite of the strength of the other nominees. Pristine lighting, mind-blowing camera movements, and an absolute texture to every image – a must-see on a big screen.

I also wanted to shout out Bruno Delbonnel’s work on The Phoenician Schema imbues the great cinematographer’s dreamy haze against Wes Anderson’s hyper-specific, pastel palette to great effects

Finally, Ben Fordesman’s work on Ronan Day-Lewis’s Anemone is one of the film’s biggest strengths, buoying the uneven narrative with breathtaking visuals that metaphysically transport the viewer.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

del Toro’s works have always featured some of the most intricately designed and ornate productions in the modern history of the medium and yet the teams’ work on Frankenstein represents an apex in this body of high-points and and will MOST LIKELY be the winner and is my personal pick amongst the nominees. That Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieua somehow one-up their work from Nightmare Alley is astounding.

In terms of non-nominated works: The team behind Resurrection including Liu Qiang and Tu Nanwork deserves a hearty round of applause for the number of environments and scenarios they had to create in order to represent the ever changing landscape of the film.

The team behind The Phoenician Scheme including returning collaborator Adam Stockhausen have also been omitted – an annoying trend with Wes Anderson’s recent output which seems to have been taken for granted.

VISUAL EFFECTS

As it is every year that one of its movies gets nominated, the MOST LIKELY and deserving winner will be for the team behind the latest entry in the Avatar franchise, Avatar: Fire and Ash. How they manage to set and exceed expectations at every point is a wonder.

In terms of omissions, the team behind the visual effects for Anemone did an incredible job in accentuating the long and unreal camera movements and surreal tone of the film, perfectly accentuating the cinematographic decisions and imbuing them with an otherworldly weight at their best.

COSTUME DESIGN

As is the story for the Production Design award, I think Academy voters will MOST LIKELY be swayed by Kate Hawleys’s work on Frankenstein and the baroque manner in which she helps brings to life del Toro’s Gothic cum Mexican Catholic fantasia.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

This award will MOST LIKELY go to Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey and team for their work on Frankenstein and deservedly so at that for manner in which they transform Elordi into the titular monster – familiar yet other, grounded

Though not nominated, the team behind Richard Linklaters’ Blue Moon deserves special praise for the manner in which they transform Ethan Hawke into an aging, small man completely different from the actor we all know.

Additionally, the team behind Charlie Polinger’s The Plague demonstrated that makeup and hairstyling don’t have to be ostentatious to be effective, augmenting the film’s bubbling discontent with their contributions to the blemishes and grotesqueries on the different characters.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Another year, another Ari Aster omission, this time in the form of Eddington, a bitingly black satire. Given its incendiary gallows humor, the exclusion felt foregone but there is a strange feeling seeing both Bugonia and One Battle After Another nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay when all 3 films have an synchronicity, a kinship of sorts.

Noah Baumbach’s latest, Jay Kelly, co-written with Emily Mortimer, seems to have been misconstrued by both critics and the general audiences despite featuring some of his best writing. The film’s more laid-back treatment of the subject may have lacked the bite voters were expecting from the director of Marriage Story.

In terms of chaotic energy, its interesting to see Mary Bronstein’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You missing while Marty Supreme (co-written by her partner) sits amongst the nominees. Legs has a similar intensity and break-neck pacing but trades in some of the epic scale for a sharper dramaturgical throughline.

Eva Victor’s debut, Sorry Baby, is another one of the year’s most sharply written scripts missing from the list of nominees Poignant and softly devastating without ever verging onto overstated.

The nominees proper are all excellent but it is Ryan Coogler and his work on Sinners that I think will MOST LIKELY win. Coogler demonstrates his chops once again, proving his ingenuity can thrive with original stories without being confined to any one genre. It’s a rare story which seems to have something for every quadrant of viewer.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Paul Thomas Anderson is MOST LIKELY to take home the award for his light adaptation of Pynchon’s Vineland in the form of One Battle After Another. Taking a mood and bags of characteristics, P.T.A’s second Pynchon adaptation has fared far better than his first attempt, Inherent Vice, because he’s somehow simplified the heart of the narrative into one that is deeply resonant in spite of the quirkiness and art leanings of the narrative.

However, once again, No Other Choice an adaptation of Donald Westlake’s The Axe, which manages to feel wholly different than Costa-Gavras’ 2005 adaptation has been omitted.

It is also strange to see a Knives Out film mist the cut for a screenplay nomination, especially when the 3rd film written again by Rian Johnson, is tighter than the 2nd and more thematically incisive than the 1st.

SOUND

The team behind F1 is MOST LIKELY to win. The film’s limited inclusion here and in the Best Picture line-up leads me to believe that the Academy cede the award over, especially given that there’s no purported leader amongst the pack of nominees.

That said, I would easily pick the work of the team behind Sirāt. The film’s use of sound is easily amongst the best of the year and defines the gestalt of the piece.

In terms of omissions, the team behind Ray Mendoza and Alex Garland’s Warfare crafted one of the truly immersive and haunting soundscapes lending to the films’ visceral feeling. Like Sirāt, this is a film defined by its soundscape.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

In a category brimming with quality, it’s hard to complain about what’s been omitted, but I would be remiss if I did not mention both Daniel Lopatin’s (Oneohtrix Point Never) work for Marty Supreme and Bobby Krlic’s work for Anemone.

In addition, Daniel Blumberg’s work on The Testament of Ann Lee (a film which was shut out of all nominations) is pivotal to the re-enactment qua musical driving the film forward and is worthy of admiration.

Of the nominees, it feels like the two primary contenders are Jonny Greenwood and Ludwig Gorranson. The former’s syncopated ambience perfectly accentuates the story and transforms the characters into gears in a machine, turning, even if out of sync, as the grind against one another to a crescendo. The latter, like he did with his Academy Award winning work on Oppenheimer, coats Sinners with his signature from start to finish, bringing to life the sonorous conceit at the heart of of genre-bending film about our relation to song.

While I would give the slight personal edge to Greenwood’s work, I believe that Ludwig Gorransson is MOST LIKELY to win for his work, especially given the intrinsic manner in which music is embedded into the film’s dramaturgy.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

While I would pick “I Lied to You” from Sinners, as the song itself and the manner in which its utilized lends to one of the truly transcendent cinematic moments of 2025 (and is certainly the scene one thinks of when they think of Sinners), “Golden” will MOST LIKELY win the award given its resounding success as a track itself, racking up listens on music streaming platforms and gaining a life as its own phenomena.

With that said, The Testament of Ann Lee being shut out of the nominees is a travesty given the film is about the act of song-making as spiritual experience just as much as Sinners is (if not moreso). Blumberg’s revival of Shaker hymns is wonderful and it would have been a joy to see “Hunger and Thirst” nominated.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

While initially a race between Timothée and DiCaprio, it feels like the other nominees have caught up and there’s a real competition behind who will take home the big award.

I still believe Timothée is MOST LIKELY to win the award, having come in as the “runner-up” so to speak in last year’s award ceremony for his performance in A Complete Unknown and delivering a completely different character in his nominated performance this year for Marty Supreme. That range and consistency is something I think will be looked favorably one, especially given the immense vitality Chalamet brings to his titular Marty. If his ill-timed comments on the other performing arts had happened during voting season, I’d be more reluctant to hedge my bets, but it looks like the damage that was done shouldn’t impact his chances this year.

That said, my personal pick would be either DiCaprio or Hawke. The former’s stoned-out loser of revolutionary desperate to fulfill his role as a father feels like a part that the celebrated thespian was born to play, acting against his celebrated looks and suave characterizations in what might be his funniest performance. Meanwhile, the latter’s complete transformation into a bitter, yet jovial, melancholic romantic is staggering and represents an absolute transformation.

Performances which deserve consideration despite not being nominated include: Jesse Plemons in Bugonia who delivers a career-best as a manic conspiracy theorist desperate to exorcise his trauma, Joaquin Phoenix in Eddington whose outing as a small-town conservative sheriff engenders a level of empathy in spite of his ignorance and self-serving proclivities, Lee Byung-hun in No Other Choice who plays a man so precisely on the edge that we can’t help but laugh as we recoil with dread at his decision-making.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

This category is somehow even harder to predict than lead, with Elordi, Penn, and Skarsgård having won industry precursors. Given Penn‘s late resurgence, I believe he is MOST LIKELY to win for his staggering performance as Lockjaw. He transforms himself, imbuing his character with a particular physicality that is both lived-in and a caricature simultaneously, eliciting both fear and laughter as he mercilessly executes his contradictory desires.

However, I would not be surprised with a Skarsgård win (even if I don’t understand his characterization as a supporting role given his primacy within Sentimental Value) . Unlike Penn, he hasn’t won an Oscar as of yet and the Academy could use this role to finally recognize him. The presence of Benicio could also split votes away from Penn and help Skarsgård close out a close race.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Given her domination of the awards circuit, the winner will MOST LIKELY be Jessie Buckley for her staggering, emotionally endearing performance in Hamnet.

While Rose Byrne’s performance is as pointed and emotionally resonant, she does not have the same reach amongst the voters.

On that note, the lack of audience (voter) resonance with Die My Love by Lynne Ramsay may explain why Jennifer Lawrence’s staggering, raw portrayal of a woman at the seams was completely omitted from the list of nominees.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Like the race for Best Supporting Actor, this race is split between three nominees: Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, and Wunmi Mosaku.

While I would vote for Teyana as her performance is largely contained to the opening of the film and her absence operates almost as another character entirely, reinforcing the enormity of her presence, I believe that the winner will MOST LIKELY be Amy Madigan.

She is the primary driving force of Weapons in spite of her limited run time. Given that she hasn’t won an award yet, I feel the Academy will use this as an opportunity to finally recognize her.

CASTING

The nominees for the 1st Best Casting award is absolutely stacked and I would not mind seeing Jennifer Venditti, Cassandra Kulukundis, or Francine Maisler taking home the inaugural award. Each of these films is peppered with interesting decisions and new faces which seem destined to become mainstays in the industry.

However, I believe that Francine Maisler is MOST LIKELY to win for her work on Sinners. The film has the 2nd most acting nominations after One Battle After Another and I believe that the award will be given as a way of compensating for close losses in other categories.

Unfortunately, like with other categories, the omission of the casting director(s) behind Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme is absolutely baffling and indicates more so that voters have gotten used to the staggering displays of acting and coordination present in Wes’s films. That his films can consistently boast such wonderful casts while integrating new faces is something that should be applauded, especially given the consistency.

With the 97th Academy Awards coming up on March 2nd, I decided to get in on the discourse and share my predictions for the awards alongside my general thoughts and musings on the nature of the candidates and appreciation for those artists who were not given the recognition I feel they should have been. I’m less interested in “snubs” and more interested in shining a light on work I felt was spectacular, so my notation of noticeable omissions isn’t meant to denigrate any of other nominees as much as it is to praise what I think is cinematically wonderful/artistically exceptional and offer a look into my own perspective.

For those looking to quickly parse the discussion for just the predictions, I have the winners BOLDED under each award category.

For any category where I haven’t seen a particular nominee, I will be marking them with an * next to the name of the respective film.

I will be skipping the following categories due to lack of familiarity with a majority of the nominees: Animated Short Film, Documentary Short Film, Documentary Feature Film, Live Action Short Film.

BEST PICTURE

This year’s Best Picture nominees, from my perspective at least, feel like they’re split into three categories:

1-Ambitious in form and style with muscular filmmaking, utilizing writing and acting in service of the more technical elements to generate transcendent cinematic moments

2-Ambitious in terms of dramaturgy, with a focus on writing and acting wherein the other grandiose aspects of filmmaking are utilized in a subtler fashion to support the formal undercurrents of the writing

3-Heavily reliant on writing and acting to generate moments of poignant catharsis with less focus on the pushing the envelope of visual style or form.

This is not to say films in first group have worse scripts and/or poorer performances while films in the latte two group have nothing technically inventive to marvel at but merely serves as an internal schema I’ve adopted to partition the nominees into more discrete entities for the sake of discussion.

This first group is the one I prefer due to my own leanings and thoughts on what makes for “great” cinema and it consists of: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Substance. I would be happy with any of these films winning the prestigious Best Picture award.

The second group is one I appreciate even if I think the films are a half-step below the aforementioned. This group consists of: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave

The third group consists of: Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Wicked. Although some of these films seem to toe the line and could belong to the second group, I feel comfortable including them here.

Out of all the candidates, the film I believe is MOST LIKELY to win is Sean Baker’s Anora . The film’s great accomplishment is the manner in which it hides the subtlety of its titular character study beneath the veneer of a screw-ball rom-com which slowly fades away to a truly poignant ending. The film strikes the balance between popular appeal and indie endearment makes it feel like a more likely winner than any of the other candidates, but do not be surprised if another winner walks out with the prestigious award.

While I don’t think any film was “snubbed” so to speak, there are a few films which I felt exhibited the best aspects of cinema which I would have thoroughly enjoyed to see nominated, including but not limited to: Robert Egger’s Nosferatu, Jane Schoenbrun’s I Saw the TV Glow, George Miller’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Luca Guadagnino’s Queer and Challengers, Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

While some of these films would definitely not see an academy nomination due to their content, experimental tendencies, or genre leanings, I do believe they represent some of the very best of the year and wanted to shine a light on them alongside the aforementioned offerings.

DIRECTING

Out of the directing candidates, I think Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, or Coralie Fargeat winning would be wonderful.

I think that the MOST LIKELY winner will be Brady Corbet.
The sheer expanse of The Brutalist and what Corbet and his crew were able to accomplish feel like they’re too big for voters to ignore and it feels like this may be the “bone” given to the film for its efforts.

In terms of missing directors, the omission of Denis Villenueve is a glaring one but it makes sense given the seemingly general lack of award praise for Dune: Part Two in general at these Oscars. Still, for a film to be nominated for Best Film, Best Sound, Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, and Best Visual Effects to not be nominated for Best Director is perplexing. If the award is meant to recognize the director who put the relevant elements together, and those elements are recognized as excellent in their own right and cohesive enough to generate a picture worth nominating, it feels odd to not include that same director in this set of awards.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

I believe that Emilia Pérez is MOST LIKELY to win. Even with recent controversy, I believe the film still has the momentum to pick up the award. It’s go-for-broke vision and kinetic energy should be able to keep supporters in tow even if they aren’t fans of the behind-the-scenes drama.

Yet, this category is more interesting to discuss given what is not nominated.

India’s astoundingly poor decision to not nominate All We Imagine as Light by Payal Kapadia should be noted here. If the Cannes Grand Prix winner was on the list of nominees, I’m certain it would have won this award and most likely been nominated for Best Picture.

In addition, seeing The Girl With the Needle amongst the nominees (my pick for best film amongst the bunch) reminds me of the omission of Rahul Sadasivan’s Bramayugam, an equally competent folk-horror bathed in black-and-white which warrants a mention due to its quality.

Of films which were submitted as their countries best, it is Norway’s entry, Armand by Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel, which is noticeably not present. The film, which experiments with the boundaries of a chamber-drama, is gripping, existential and features a knock-out performance by Renate Reinsve.

But on a positive note, it is wonderful to see Flow nominated. It is rare to see an animated picture, even one with a robust cinematic quality, make it out of the Animated only awards and be recognized as cinema proper. One can only hope this is the start of a larger trend recognizing animated films as films that are animated instead of a wholly distinct category.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Flow is MOST LIKELY to win. Its presence in the best International Films category makes this all but certain, and it is certainly a worthy winner of the prize. The manner in which it plays with scenarios that coalesce into something grander befitting what we could call “epic” is inspiring and something that cineastes need to experience.

While the other nominees range from “good” to “great”, there’s a dearth of qualified nominees which should’ve been present. As is custom with the Oscars, these are animated films from Japan. These omissions include Naoko Yamada’s The Colors Within and Kiyotaka Oshiyama’s Look Back. Both films feature stellar animation like the nominees, but experiment formally with the medium in ways that deserve recognition outside of just presenting a “great story.”

FILM EDITING

While I prefer the structure and methodical pacing of The Brutalist’s editing and would easily give Jancsó the award, I believe the MOST LIKELY to win will be Nick Emerson for his work on Conclave. His editing helps propel the the urgency embedded within the narrative and is apparent especially due to the manner in which the edit unfolds alongside the intense, cutting score.

Yet, this category is less clear cut and I would not be surprised to see Baker or Jancsó taking the award home.

In terms of omissions, Joe Walker’s work on Dune: Part Two and Marco Costa’s work on Challengers are most interesting. The former’s layering of the oneric and political is what makes the film as effective as it is while the latter’s is some of the most propulsive (especially during the kinetic action scenes) of the year.

In addition, Yorgos Mavropsaridis’s work on Kinds of Kindness (a film which seems to have missed awards hype all together), should be commended as it strikes the perfect balance between the aspects of its tryptich plotting and within each of the sections independently. Anthology films are always hard to pull off and such wonderful balancing between the stories such as to preserve a throughline is rare.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

This is a category which is absolutely brimming with quality, and sans Emilia Pérez, is one where any of the winners are worthy due to the depth and beauty of their images.

Crawley’s work on The Brutalist helps the film ooze texture, and moments involving shadows hearken back to some of the best examples in the medium à la Gordon Willis’s work on The Godfather films.

Fraser’s work is just as good as his efforts on Dune and helps keep the two parts visually consistent with one another, affirming their status as complements telling one overarching story.

Lachman’s partnership with Pablo Larrain and Blaschke’s partnernship with Robert Eggers earns both cinematoraphers an additional well-earned nomition for their respective works. Blaschke’s accomplishments in rendering a near grey-scale image inspite of containing colors makes his work my personal pick for the award.

In terms of non-nominated works: Eric K. Yue’s work on I Saw the TV glow
keeps the film’s metaphysically dubious nature constantly prevalent as the lights and textures make it impossible for us to great a complete grasp on the reality of what’s transpiring; Sayombhu Mukdeeprom’s work on Queer imbues the dreamscape with a lush haze that keeps the viewer fully engrossed even as the scenario gets increasingly surreal; Benjamin Kračun’s work on The Substance gives it an precise, clinical tactility that serves as the perfect backdrop to both the conspiratorial and gore-filled tendencies of the film; Simon Duggan’s work on Furiosa: A A Mad Max Saga which brings a new life to Miller’s fantastic wasteland and serves as a worthy follow-up while not directly aping John Seale’s stellar work in Mad Max: Fury Road.

That all said, I think that its Lol Crawley‘s work on The Brutalist that will MOST LIKELY take home top prize. It should appeal to traditionalist voters and more conventional ones with both its subtle close-ups and magnificent wides.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

While my personal pick of these would likely go to the team behind Nosferatu for the wonderful creation of a gothic hellscape that oozes its shadows at every corners, I think Academy voters will MOST LIKELY be swayed by Wicked and its fantastical renditions of Oz which the dance-numbers certainly call attention to. This is also the “populist” pick amongst the voters and seems like one of the “consolation” awards of sorts given to Wicked due to its widespread Blockbuster appeal.

VISUAL EFFECTS

While I think this batch of nominees is more than deserving of their selections (some more than others), the team behind Alex Garland’s Civil War deserves praise for the manner in which it transposes visions of violence onto the United States’ landscape in a viscerally upsetting, hauntingly grounded manner.

Yet, in spite of quality work on the part of the other candidates, this award is MOST LIKELY Dune: Part Two’s for the taking and it would be shocking if this was not the case. Helping to ground a wholly science-fiction world with this level of fidelity cannot be ignored.

COSTUME DESIGN

As is the story for the Production Design award, I think Academy voters will MOST LIKELY be swayed by Holly Waddington’s work Wicked and the whimsical manner in which she brings to life the world of Oz’s characters.

My personal pick amongst the nominees would be Ellen Mirojnick’s work in Nosferatu. She ensures that the milieu of Egger’s gothic nightmare is historically grounded which allows the fantastical elements to stand-out in sharp, disturbing contrast. The work isn’t particularly showy, but is perfectly complimentary.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

This award will MOST LIKELY go to Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli for their work on The Substance and deservedly so at that for the gonzo and astounding transformations character(s) go through. The committment to intertwining the stylings of the character with the visual effects makes the pronouncements of the former all the harder to ignore in spite of the genre bias the Academy has against horror. This is the film doing the most the best.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

The omission of Justin Kuritzkes work on Challengers is baffling given the films intense plotting and exuberant tit-a-tats between its leading triumvirate. This is the kind of screenplay it feels the Academy would’ve lapped up in years past making its omission amongst this years’s nominees all the more apparent. Alex Garland’s work on Civil War should also be mentioned as he creates a world filled with implications, hidden within the dialogue and story beats, that informs the harrowing nature of its journey from start to finish without overdetermining it.

Out of the nominees, both A Real Pain and September 5 are films that live-or-die based on their scripts and it is their scripts that make the films as good as they are, yet neither are particularly “special” in a way that marks them as something more than well-written and efficient. They’re missing that critical “X” factor which would differentiate them enough.

There is a world where Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s work on The Brutalist is given its “flowers”, but given the lack of voter interest in watching the film in its entirety ^[1]Davis, C. (2025, January 18). Oscar voting closes: Is “the Brutalist” underseen? could “juror #2” make a surprise best picture nom? – nine takeaways from Academy members. Variety. … Continue reading and the condemnation of the ambiguity and plotting in the second of the film, this would be a tougher sell ,even if it is my personal pick for the award.

While Fargeat’s script is nearly air-tight, I believe that voters will associate The Substance moreso with its gonzo visual designs and performances opposed to the masterful plotting of the narrative or the sardonic dialogue beats and will skip over commending it here.

Therefore, I believe that Sean Baker is MOST LIKELY to win for his work on Anora. He manages to achieve yet another indelibaly written screenplay with lived-in characters, quotable dialogue, and memorable scenes without missing those silent, poignant moments which serve as truly transcendent. His script is one which strikes a balance that should appeal to the most voters.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Dune: Part Two is the glaring omission here, but that seems to be the story of this 95th Oscars. It should be reiterated the enormity of taking Frank Herbert’s seminal work and rendering it into a cinematically digestible work, let alone one which thumps with grandeur as this one does.

Kuritzkes work on Queer also needs to be mentioned. Taking William S. Burroughs work to task in screenplay form is an thankless, near impossible task, but Kuritzkes managed to do the same without missing out on the emotional beats which make the surreal, hallucinatory film accessible to those willing to let it penetrate.

Finally, Paul Schrader’s work in bringing Russell Banks’ Forgeone to the screen in the form of Oh, Canada warrants a mention if for nothing else than the unique sincerity of its emotional thrust; there has never been such a somber meditation on the meaning of art from an artist at death’s door and coming from Schrader, one of the form’s most underrated auteurs, its poignancy rings all the clearer.

Amongst the candidates themselves, I would pick RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barne’s work on Nickel Boys for the way in which they weave together their larger-than-life narrative through the eyes of two men, retaining a humanity while commenting on larger strucutral issues.


Yet, I believe that Peter Straughan will MOST LIKELY take home this prize for his work on Conclave. His script balances the urgency, mystery, and spiritual stakes of the film without compromising on any of those aspects and should have the most widespread appeal amongst the voters.

SOUND

Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill‘s work on Dune: Part Two will MOST LIKELY win, especially due to the lack of particularly standout work from any of the other candidates.

Yet, it is the work of those responisble for Nosferatu’s soundscape that is glaringly missing. The crunchy, off-putting dissonances of the film were certainly the most visceral pieces of mixing I’ve heard in any film of the year and made the experience what it was.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

There is Daniel Blumberg’s work on The Brutalist and then the other candidates. His work makes the film thump and pound as it does, as he expertely layers his sounds to bleed the diegetic and non-diegetic elements of the soundscape. His triumphant score sets the tone for the film and its transformation throughout serves to formally align and juxtapose the films’ competing elements.

Even those who may not enjoy the film cannot help but be swept away by the operatic, grandiose quality of the score. Therefore, I believe that Daniel Blumberg is MOST LIKELY to win.

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s work on both Challengers and Queer have been notibly omitted in spite of their vastly distinctive, yet equally evocatives dressing of their respective films. Neither of Guadagnino’s films are what they are without these aural textures, but given the exclusion of both of these works from any of the categories, it’s no surprise that the aural accoutrements of the works would get any recognition.

In addition, Kensuke Ushio’s work on The Colors Within is frustratingly missing in spite of the film’s explicit focus on music and the creation process that goes into the art-form. This is a score which features wonderful uses of the theremin amongst other instruments and its exclusion owes to The Academy’s general retience to acknowledge animated works outside of their animated qualities.

Finally, Robin Carolan’s operatic work on Nosferatu needs to be mentioned. The grandiose gothic leanings of the score transforms the represesed, dark vestiges it traverses into pockets of catharsis and generates beauty from the nightmarish.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

El Mal will MOST LIKELY win the award and of the Emilia Pérez nominations this is certainly the one that I can get behind. The song is wonderfully choregraphed, featuring an absoltuely electric Zoe Saldaña who nails delivering the song with such finesse alongside with the electric camera movements that one can’t help but get into the rythm of the song as its use within its context.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

This is a race between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet but I still believe that the former is MOST LIKELY to win the award due to his success at ceremonies during awards season.

However, the biggest omission from the performances is from Timothée Chalamet’s work in Dune: Part Two, which I think is a step above nominated work (which is absolutely wonderful). His range and transformation in Villeneuve’s work is absolutely transfixing.

Additionally, Justice Smith’s performance in I Saw the TV Glow is riveting and his calm, awkward, often self-abasing performance is filled with nuance and depth, sublmiating the film’s themes into facial expressions and physical ticks that devastate.

Gaudagnino’s leading men are also noticeably missing from recognition: Mike Faist absolutely serves in Challengers oscillating between competitive, hurt, horny, and complacent whenever the film needs; Daniel Craig’s somber longing makes Queer as melancholic and wistful as it is and showcases a depth which hasn’t been prevalent in his work up to this point.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Given his absolute decimation of this category throughout the season’s award shows, it’s not a MOST LIKELY as much as it is an inevitability that Kieran Culkin will win the award for his emotionally compelling work in A Real Pain.

However, it is Guy Pearce’s performance in The Brutalist which should win. It is an immense performance filled with nuances that elude surface level analysis and his ability to go toe-to-toe with Brody’s lead performance is what makes The Brutalist as engrossing and devastating as it is.

Aaron-Taylor Johnson and Willem DaFoe’s performances in Nosferatu are notable omissions as the two men who play counter-roles in the context of their characters relation to the supernatural nature of the plot give it the depth it needs to be as resonant.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

This is a race between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore and while I would personally tip my hat more to Madison, especially due to The Substance’s reliance on a balancing act between Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley, the momentum is fully behind Moore who I believe is MOST LIKELY to win the award.

However, the inclusion of Demi Moore’s work in a genre film makes the omission Lily-Rose Depp’s performance in Nosferatu all the more troubling. Depp goes into full hystrionics in a way that is incredibly dificult to pull-off without coming off as caricature and she is the heart and soul of Eggers’ dark masterpiece.

Additionally, Kristen Dunst needs to be mentioned for her emotionally vulnerable, subtle transformative work in Civil War. Her arc is that of the film and is the necesary feature which lets the ending hit with the intensity by which it does.

Finally, Maika Monroe’s performance in Longlegs needs to be noted. Her quiet, socially-awkward cuts new ground in the genre and serves as the perfect vehicle for the audience to delve into the darker underpinnings of the world the film examines.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Given her absolute decimation of this category throughout the season’s award shows, it’s not a MOST LIKELY as much as it is an inevitability that Zoe Saldaña will win the award for her emotionally compelling work in The Holdovers.

However, it is Felicity Jones’ performance in The Brutalist which would be my personal choice as her appearance in the film triggers the dominos that make its conlcuding moments as poignant and cathartic as they are. Her show-stopping scene near the film’s end is utterly mesmerizing and is the best bit of acting amongst all the nominated performances.

Marget Qualley’s performance in The Substance is the biggest omission and one that has baffled me since the start of the Awards Show season given how much her balancing act with Demi Moore makes the film. Focusing on one performance over the other feels antiethical to the point the film makes which makes the lack of praise for one actress and the overwhelming support for the other absolutely puzzling. If Moore deserves her kudos(which she does), then Qualley deserves the same equally so.